‘I can’t afford to sell because I don’t want to lose that rate’: 3% mortgage rates will loom large over the U.S. housing market for years to come
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.10% recently, the highest reading since November of last year.
Higher mortgage rates triggered a drop in demand.
Meanwhile homeowners who’ve locked in lower mortgage rates are choosing not to sell, tightening available inventory.
That means that the market is losing buyers looking to move up and losing sellers looking to move up, so this lock-in effect is constraining both sides of the market.
99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than 6% or the current market rate, and around 28% of those have rates below 3%.
It seems that inventory will stay tight and we might see greater declines [in home sales and new listings], as the 99% of borrowers that have rates below the current market rate hold on to their old rates.
While Goldman Sachs expects the so-called lock-in effect to constrain the U.S. housing market, the investment bank doesn't think it'll be enough to stop the home price correction. Heading forward, Goldman Sachs expects national house prices will fall 6.1% in 2023.